'Trump is in deep, deep trouble': New polls show Biden's star is on the rise

‘Trump is in deep, deep trouble’: New polls show Biden’s star is on the rise

Side by side photos of Biden and Trump

Flickr / Gage Skidmore

Donald Trump has received even more alarming news than his COVID-19 diagnosis last week: Biden is crushing him in the latest polls.

The former VP currently holds a 16 point lead against the President.

Trump is losing votes across the voting board

President Trump sitting in a yellow chair

AP Photo / Evan Vucci

A poll by CNN, and another by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal both show that Biden’s lead over Trump is increasing. NBC found Biden to be leading with a 14-point lead among all registered voters. The CNN poll demonstrated a 16-point lead for Biden over Trump.

Most importantly, the latest polls show that seniors are increasingly favoring Biden. The CNN poll, released on Tuesday, found that 60 percent choose Biden over 39 percent in favor of Trump. While the NBC poll showed a 62-35 percent lead for Biden over Trump in this category.

All polls count, but some polls count more than others

For villagers only

Screenshot/Youtube

The headway Biden has made in the over 65 category is all-important because senior citizens are America’s most reliable voters. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has alienated this base against him, as senior voters are more vulnerable to COVID-19.

 

In 2016, Trump led in this critical category by seven percent. This October, surveys from the New York Times and the Siena College poll show Biden ahead in the over 65 category. He holds an eleven point lead in Pennsylvania, a two-point lead in Florida, and he is ahead by one point in Arizona.

Biden came out on top in the debate

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These polls were taken shortly after the first Presidential debate last Tuesday. The NBC and Wall Street Journal poll showed that 49 percent of interviewees believed Biden did a better job in the debate, over 24 percent for Trump.

While according to the CNN poll, only 27 percent of respondents thought that Trump did a better job in the debate, against 58 percent for Biden.

50 percent of respondents had a ‘very negative’ view of Trump

Trump with his arms crossed

Twitter / @DonaldJGrumpy

For the first time, 50 percent of respondents in the NBC and Wall Street Journal poll declared they had a “very negative” view of Donald Trump.

On the other hand, the “feeling thermometer” has a good reading for Joe Biden. Last year, a greater number of respondents had negative than positive feelings for the Democratic candidate. In these latest post-debate polls, Biden is recording a positive score by two percent over negative.

Given that Trump is in deep and uncertain waters right now, those two percentage points could make all the difference.

Could the Trump campaign drive out new voters from college?

Woman in graduation cap and gown looking over her shoulder

Canva

One theory is that the Trump campaign will seek victory by driving out new voters to the polls, particularly white college students. While this is a possibility, critics point out the logistical difficulty of turning out never-before registered voters to the polls. In 2016, Trump sought to flip Obama voters against Hilary Clinton.

This time around, Democrats are unlikely to make the same mistake.

The swing of things

Trump in front of a US map

Wikipedia / PNG Guru

Biden may have a lead over Trump in the national polls — but so did Hilary Clinton.

The outcome of the election lies largely in the lap of the handful of swing states. Every day, the Guardian’s poll tracker presents a rolling 14-day average of the polls across eight swing states. The two men are nearly neck to neck, but Biden has a narrow lead in nearly all the swing states.

Over the next 27 days, all eyes will be on states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan.

Things look good but don’t get complacent

A photograph of Hillary Clinton.

Flickr / Gage Skidmore

The President falling ill with COVID-19 has returned the coronavirus pandemic firmly back into the foreground of the political arena, and Trump does not come out well.

It is too early to be complacent, however. Every vote counts. Democrats felt good about the election in 2016 — and we all know how that turned out.

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