An election model that was surprisingly accurate in 2018 now predicts that a Democrat will win the presidency in 2020, and Donald Trump will lose.
“In July of 2018, my innovative forecasting model raised eyebrows by predicting some four months before the midterm election that Democrats would pick up 42 seats in the House of Representatives,” explains Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.
“Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency,” she explains. “Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”
Bitcofer also explains why Florida (and Texas and Georgia) are “highly attractive pitfalls” for Democrats. First, “Florida is really, really old. No state hosts more members of the Silent Generation, and Silents are more conservative, more white, more Republican, and thus less hostile to Trump than their generational counterparts. Not only are seniors realigning to the Republican Party, they are also the nation’s most reliable voters.”
The second problem for Democrats “is that as white, non-college educated voters, especially older ones, become more Republican, Democrats become increasingly reliant on the turnout of young and/or Latino voters to make up the difference. As of 2018, Democrats still have not cracked the code on getting either young people or Latino voters mobilized.”